Lorin Hochstein

Ramblings about software, research and other things

Estimating confidence intervals, part 3

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Another episode in our continuing series of effort estimation in the small with 90% confidence intervals. I recently finished implementing another feature after doing the effort estimates for each day. Here’s the plot:


Effort estimation, 90% confidence intervals

Once again, I underestimated the effort even at the 90% level, although not as badly as last time. Here’s a plot of the error.

Error plot

I also find it takes real mental energy to do these daily effort estimates.





Written by Lorin

June 29, 2014 at 8:51 pm

Posted in research, software

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  1. […] the latest installment in my continuing saga to estimate effort with 90% confidence intervals. Here’s the […]

  2. […] Our series of effort-estimation-in-the-small continues. This feature took a while to complete (where “complete” means “deployed to production”). I thought this was the longest feature I’d worked on, but looking at the historical data, there was another feature that took even longer. […]

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